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14/3/17

The K7RA Solar Update

03/03/2017
On March 2 at 2353 UTC the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for March 3.
“The Earth is currently under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. On 3 March geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active levels. Isolated minor storm periods are also possible.”
This reporting week (February 23 through March 1, 2017) sunspot and solar flux averages rose while geomagnetic indices remained about the same, compared to the previous seven days. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 19.1 to 34.1, and average daily solar flux went from 78.5 to 81.3.
Average planetary A index barely changed from 11.3 to 13.1, and average mid-latitude A index (measured in Virginia) went from 9 to 8.7. The numbers went in opposite directions, but were each barely changed.
Predicted solar flux is 79 on March 3, 78 on March 4-5, 77 on March 6-7, 76 on March 8, 75 on March 9-14, then 74, 75, 77, 79, and 80 on March 15-19, 82 on March 20-23, 80 on March 24-25, 79 on March 26, 77 on March 27-28, 79 on March 29-31, 75 on April 1, 72 on April 2-3, 73 and 74 on April 4-5, 75 on April 6-10, and 74, 75 and 77 on April 11-13.
Predicted planetary A index is 22, 14, 10 and 8 on March 3-6, 5 on March 7-8, 8 on March 9, 5 on March 10-14 then 10, 20, 15, 10 and 8 on March 15-19, then 5, 8, 10, 15, and 8 on March 20-24, 5 on March 25-26, then 12, 25, 20, 15 and 8 on March 27-31, 5 on April 1-10, and 10, 20, 15 and 10 on April 11-14.

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