The K7RA Solar Update 09/15/2017

The K7RA Solar Update

09/15/2017

At 0005 UTC on September 15 the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning.

“The previous geomagnetic warning is extended for two more days. The high-speed streams associated with the coronal hole is expected to persist for a few days. If the Bz component of the IMF turned strongly southward for prolonged periods, earth could experience minor storm conditions. Otherwise, expect mostly unsettled to active condition for the next two days (15 and 16 September).

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAMFROM 15-16 SEPTEMBER 2017

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
15 Sep:  Active
16 Sep:  Active"

Over the past reporting week (September 7-13) sunspot numbers and solar flux were lower, while geomagnetic indicators were higher.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 87.3 to 45, and average daily solar flux went from 114.1 to 97.6.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 18 to 27.3, and average daily mid-latitude A index went from 16.7 to 18.3.

Predicted solar flux is 74 on September 15-21, then 90, 92, 95, 98, 105, 110, 115 and 120 on September 22-29, 125 on September 30 and October 1, then 120, 115, 110, 100, 95, 90, 85, 83, 81 and 84 on October 2-11, 83 on October 12-14, 84 on October 15, 85 on October 16-17, then 88, 90, 92, 95, 98, 105, 110, 115 and 120 on October 18-26, 125 on October 27-28 and 120 on October 29.

Predicted planetary A index is 28 on September 15-16, 26 on September 17, 12 on September 18-21, 5 then 5, 8, 5, 8 and 5 on September 22-26, 20 on September 27-29, then 18, 15, 12 and 8 on September 30 through October 3, 5 on October 4-7, then 7 and 12 on October 8-9, 30 on October 10-12, 20 and 10 on October 13-14, 5 on October 15-16, then 8, 5, 5, 8, 5, 8 and 5 on October 17-23, 20 on October 24-26, then and 18, 15 and 12 on October 27-29.

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