Propagation Forecast Bulletin #38 de K7RA:

Propagation Forecast Bulletin #38 de K7RA:

ZCZC AP38
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA September 29, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP038
ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

Over the past week we saw solar indices decline. Lower activity persists, and the uptick in solar activity on September 2 to 10, when sunspot numbers were 71, 96, 122, 122, 79, 94, 89, 49 and 38 and solar flux was 100, 120, 140, 121, 133, 129, 117, 107 and 100 will probably not be seen again til the upside after solar minimum, perhaps in 2021 or 2022.

But perhaps we will be surprised again.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined over the past few weeks from 87.3 to 45 and 13.6, and average daily solar flux from 114.1, to 97.6 and 72.6.

Average daily planetary A index was 18, 27.3 and 21.1 while average mid-latitude A index (measured in Virginia, at a magnetometer on Wallops Island was 16.7, 18.3 and 17.1.)

Predicted solar flux is 70, and 85 on September 22 and 23, 90 on September 24 to 28, 105 on September 29, 115 on September 30 through October 6, then 110, 85, 76, 75, 74, and 73 on October 7 to 12, 72 on October 13 and 14, 75 on October 15 to 19, 95 on October 20, 110 on October 21 to 25, and 115 on October 26 through November 2, then 110, 85 and 76 on November 3 to 5.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 16, 8, 25 and 35 on September 22 to 28, then 20, 18, 15, 12, and 8 on September 29 to October 3, 5 on October 4 to 10, 25 on October 11 to 13, then 20, 15, 12 and 10 on October 14 to 17, 5 on October 18 and 19, then 8, 18, 12, and 8 on October 20 to 23, 20 on October 24 to 26, then 18, 15, 12 and 8 on October 27 to 30, and 5 October 31 through November 5.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 22 thru October 18, 2017 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group.

"Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on September 22, 24
Mostly quiet on September 23, 26, October 18
Quiet to unsettled September 25, October 5 and 6
Quiet to active on September 27, 30, October 1 to 4, 7 and 8, 10 and 11, 14 to 17
Active to disturbed on September 28 and 29, October 9, 12 and 13

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on September 27 to 29, October (1,) 2 to 5, (8, 11 and 12,) 13 to 15, (16 and 17)

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower reliability of prediction."

 More here... http://www.eham.net/articles/40160