The K7RA Solar Update
09/09/2017
Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Wow! What a week for solar activity. Although the solar cycle is trending toward a solar minimum in around 2020, we will still see notable upticks in activity, such as this week’s surprises.
On August 31, Spaceweather.com reported a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. The planetary A index was 59. The following day Spaceweather.com reported geomagnetic unrest with a planetary A index of 19. The index was 26 on September 2, when Spaceweather.com reported sunspot group AR2674 “rapidly growing, increasing in both area and sunspot count.”
“As the sunspot grows, its magnetic field is becoming unstable, posing a threat for M-class solar flares,” the site reported. The planetary A index was 9 on September 3, when Spaceweather.com reported two huge sunspot groups facing Earth.
“Behemoth AR2674 has been growing for days, while newcomer AR2673 has suddenly quadrupled in size, with multiple dark cores breaching the surface of the sun in just the past 24 hours. This movie from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory shows sunspot genesis in action.
On September 4, the planetary A index was 18, and Spaceweather.com reported: “Huge sunspot AR2673, which materialized with shocking speed over the weekend, is seething with activity.”
A few days ago in Romania, solar photographer Maximilian Teodorescu captured this snapshot of plasma currents surging inside the sunspot’s magnetic canopy, apparently on the verge of an explosion.” Note the recent emergence of large sunspot areas.
We also saw the largest solar flare in more than a decade launch on Thursday night.
Predicted solar flux is 115 on September 9; 105 on September 10; 90 on September 11-15; 85 on September 16-17; 88 on September 18; 92 on September 19-21; 95, 98, 100, and 105 on September 22-25; 110 on September 26-October 2; 105 on October 3-5; 100, 95, 90, 85, and 80 on October 6-10; 85 on October 11-14; 88 on October 15; 92 on October 16-18, and 95, 98, 100, 105, and 110 on October 19-23.
The predicted planetary A index is 30 and 10 on September 9-10; 8 on September 11-12; 28, 30, 20, 25, and 12 on September 13-17; 5 on September 18-19; 8 on September 20; 5 on September 21-22; 8, 5, 8, and 5 on September 23-26; 20 on September 27-29; 12, 10, 8, and 5 on September 30-October 3; 15 on October 4-5; 8 on October 6; 5 on October 7-9; 25 on October 10-12; 20, and 10 on October 13-14; 5 on October 15-16, and 8, 5, 5, 8, 5, 8, and 5 on October 17-23.
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