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19/8/16

The K7RA Solar Update


08/19/2016
Conditions turned a little more favorable since last week’s bulletin with both solar flux and sunspot numbers up, and geomagnetic indices substantially lower.

Average daily sunspot numbers for the August 11-17 period were 73.9, compared to 52 for the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux went from 87.9 to 89.2. Average daily planetary A index dropped from 14.6 to 6.9, and average mid-latitude A index went from 13.7 to 7.4.

Predicted solar flux for the near term is 85 on August 19, 80 on August 20, 75 on August 21-22, 85 on August 23-24, 90 on August 25-26, 75 on August 27 through September 1, 80 and 85 on September 2-3, and 90 on September 4-14. Solar flux then pulls back to 75 on September 18-28, then recovers to 90 in the first days of October.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 14, 8 and 6 on August 19-22, 5 on August 23-24, 12 on August 25, 8 on August 26, 5 on August 27-28, then 15, 25 and 18 on August 29-31, 15 on September 1-2, 12 on September 3-4, and 15 on September 5-6.

The predicted planetary A index is 25 on September 26, indicating high geomagnetic activity.

We have a geomagnetic forecast from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be,
Quiet on August 22, 27-28, September 10-12
Mostly quiet on August 19, 23, 26, September 9
Quiet to unsettled on August 20, September 1, 13
Quiet to active on August 21, 24-25, 31, September 2-8, 14
Active to disturbed on August 29-30

Increases of solar wind from coronal holes are expected on August (24-25, 29,) 30-31, September 1, (2-5)

Remark: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.


Thanks to David Moore for sending this article about the Van Allen belt:http://bit.ly/2bCqHXb

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