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19/5/17

The K7RA Solar Update

05/19/2017
The Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning at 0301 UTC on May 19:

”Geomagnetic conditions may rise to minor storm levels late on 19 May. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain enhanced to active to minor storm levels with some major storm periods on 20 May. Mostly unsettled to active levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 21 May with the possibility of some minor storm periods on this day.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 19-21 MAY 2017.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
19 May:  Quiet to unsettled during first half, and active to minor storm during second half of the day
20 May:  Active to minor storm, some major storm periods possible
21 May:  Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible”


We saw seven consecutive days with zero sunspots recently on May 9-15. This overlapped the recent reporting week (May 11-17) with the previous week. The spotless period ended on May 16 when two sunspot groups appeared, 2656 and 2657, with sunspot numbers of 11 and 13 on May 16-17.

Average daily sunspot numbers reported in last week’s bulletin were 17.1, and the average in the current reporting week was only 3.4. This is because last week’s report covered two consecutive days with zero sunspots, this week covered five days with no activity.

Average daily solar flux declined from 71.5 to 70.5, the average estimated daily planetary A index rose from 6.3 to 8.3, while the mid-latitude A index rose from 5.9 to 9.4.

Predicted solar flux (from Thursday’s NOAA and USAF 45-day forecast) is 72 on May 19-21, 74 on May 22-25, 76 on May 26-29, 74 on May 30 thru June 3, 72 on June 4, 70 on June 5-10, 72 on June 11-12, 74 on June 13-17, 76 on June 18-25, and 74 on June 26-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 45, 30, 20 and 12 on May 19-22, 8 on May 23-24, 5 on May 25 thru June 3, 8 on June 4, 5 on June 5-9, then 8, 12, 22, 32 and 20 on June 10-14, then 48, 36, 20, 12 and 8 on June 15-19, and 5 on June 20 thru the end of the month.

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