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5/11/16

Propagation de K7RA

5 November, 2016
ARLP045
At 2347 UTC on November 3 Australia's Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "Expect Unsettled to Active conditions with periods of Minor Storm levels in the Australian region for the next UT day, 4 November, if a small coronal hole in the Southern hemisphere will become geoeffective."
But as of November 3, the prediction from NOAA/USAF for planetary A index for November 4 and 5 is only 10 and 8.
Over the past reporting week (October 27 through November 2) we saw two days with no sunspots, October 28 and November 2. Prior to the past week, in recent memory only October 1 had no sunspots either.
Average daily sunspot number for the week was 9.1, down from 18.7 over the previous seven days.
Average daily solar flux rose, but only slightly from 76.9 to 77.5.
Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average daily planetary A index declining from 20.3 to 18.1, and mid-latitude A index from 16.7 to 13.4.
Predicted solar flux is 78 on November 4-7, 75 on November 8-11, then 80, 78 and 75 on November 12-14, 73 on November 15-16, 78 on November 17-18, 77 and 75 on November 19-20, 78 on November 21-22, 80 on November 23-25, 78 on November 26, 80 on November 27-29, 78 on November 30, 82 on December 1-3, 80 on December 4-5, 78 on December 6-7, and 80 on December 8-9.
Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on November 4-5, 5 on November 6-10, then 10, 15, 18, 10 and 8 on November 11-15, 5 on November 16-18, then 8, 15, 54, 42 and 24 on November 19-23, then 18, 22, 18, 15 and 12 on November 24-28, then 8 on November 29 through December 1, then 5 and 8 on December 2-3, and 5 on December 4-7.
Looking at our three-month moving average of sunspot numbers, the average sunspot value for August 1 through October 31 was 39. Over the same three-month period in 2015 the average was 64.5, and in 2014 it was 108.4.
Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent us this on October 3.
"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 4-November 30, 2016
"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on November 7-8
Mostly quiet on November 4, (9-10), 15-18, 29-30
Quiet to unsettled on November 5-6, 11, 14, 19, 27-28
Quiet to active on November 12-13, 20, 24
Active to disturbed on November 21-23, 25-26
"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected: on November 5-6, 12-13, 20-26

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